November 26, 2011

An Earnest Discussion

World Tour Finals, Day Six

(9) Tipsarevic d. (1) Djokovic, 3/6 6/3 6/3

Without being privy to any inside gossip on the matter, I would be surprised if Novak Djokovic and Janko Tipsarevic did not conduct an earnest man-to-man discussion at some point in the last two days. It conceivably ranged across any number of topics – such as how swell it is to be young, handsome and wealthy – but almost certainly centred on their upcoming

round robin tie at the World Tour Finals. They are close chums, and elite tennis players. Unless you’re Pete Sampras or Jimmy Connors, these two states are not mutually exclusive for most pros, though if the relationship is to experience strain it would be at times like this.

Tipsarevic could have greatly enhanced Djokovic’s prospects of reaching the semifinals by tanking the match. He already had a losing record against the world No.1 (0-3), and could not qualify himself. On the flip side, a win would net Tipsarevic 200 ranking points, and $120,000, which is hardly chump change, even for handsome young Serbs with underwear modelling contracts. Furthermore, a realistic shot at the world No.1 doesn’t come around every day, even when you’re the world No.9 and he’s your best mate. Plus, well, Djokovic looks buggered, and his semifinal opponent would be Roger Federer, who looks murderous. This entirely theoretical discussion might have yielded any number of outcomes, and all for good reasons. However, as cynical as I am by nature, I suspect the discussion was brief, and the outcome entailed Djokovic telling Tipsarevic to simply play to win, like any other match. Everything Djokovic has achieved this year, he has earned fairly, and I doubt he would want to conclude his greatest season any other way. The way the match played out suggests I’m not wrong, an uncommon occurrence of late.

In the first set, it was Djokovic playing to win, breaking Tipsarevic at 2/1, and holding comfortably thereafter to see out the set. Weariness began to tell in the second, however, as it has all week, and the rivulet of errors broadened to a stream, and his commitment began to wane. Tipsarevic’s tempo accelerated, and he grabbed the break at 4/2. Djokovic’s drop shot, so effective for much of this season, began to revert to its erstwhile role, which was bailing him out of rallies he couldn’t be bothered continuing, an altogether less decisive tactic. By the third set, it looked like he couldn’t be bothered continuing with his year, and Tipsarevic took it with a couple of breaks. This ended the No.9’s season – exultantly, and slightly wealthier – but Djokovic was obliged to await the outcome of the night match between David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych.

(6) Berdych d. (5) Ferrer, 3/6 7/5 6/1

Ferrer has already qualified for the semifinals, but added motivation remained insofar as a win would help him avoid Federer in the semifinals, which all interested parties seem eager to do. For Berdych, a win would see him top Group A. Djokovic, luggage packed, idled impatiently in his hotel, his learjet doing the same at Gatwick. Then Ferrer took the first set, and went up a break in the second. The Czech could barely scrape points together. The learjet powered down. Berdych fans collectively groaned, along with Djokovic, who gave up slathering himself in reef oil for the moment. Berdych, suddenly majestic, broke back. Ferrer broke again, then, sloppy, gifted that one back, too. The learjet’s fuel bill was mounting, and Djokovic was a sight, in board shorts and a dressing gown, his luggage in disarray. Berdych took the set, somehow. Ferrer, recalling suddenly that the semifinals would commence in a mere 15 hours and the Davis Cup final in less than a week, went to his bag for the white flag. Bafflingly, he emerged instead with a pink shirt, so he put that on. Somehow, the effect was much the same. Set Berdych – 6/1 – and the match. Ferrer will face Federer in the first semifinal. Berdych will face Tsonga. Djokovic, 70-6 for the season, is headed for the Maldives, assuming sufficient fuel remains for the trip.

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November 25, 2011

Moving Parts

World Tour Finals, Day Five

(4) Federer d. (8) Fish, 6/1 3/6 6/3

(7) Tsonga d. (2) Nadal, 7/6 4/6 6/3

Mardy Fish has every reason to feel despondent with his 2011 World Tour Finals campaign, leaving the tournament early without winning a match. He was presumably resigned to being abroad for Thanksgiving – that annual nationwide degustation in which the capacity to feed oneself is hopefully appreciated by the 5/6ths of Americans that can – but probably hoped to be somewhere other than aboard a plane over the Atlantic. If he’s in search of comfort, or distraction from the inflight movie, he can find some in the fact that he won a set in all three of his losses this week, although he’ll surely regret not taking two from Rafael Nadal, like everyone else did.

Today he lost to Roger Federer, but there’s no shame in that, especially given the latter’s form. For parts of the match, Fish was even the superior player. The issue, as it has been all week, is that he couldn’t sustain this superiority through the deciding set, which inevitably decided matters. Federer had already earned his semifinal berth, and so had little to motivate him beyond a few hundred ranking points, pride, and the frenzied adulation of the crowd. He didn’t look terribly concerned when Fish stormed through the second set, or particularly elated upon winning.

Later, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga joined Federer in the semifinals by taking the requisite two sets from Rafael Nadal. This time it was Nadal’s turn to fade sharply in the final set, having hung on grimly to steal a break at the end of the second. Tsonga tightened perceptibly upon stepping up to serve for the match at 5/2 – the court-side microphones picked up the creak and pop of his mighty thews – and conceded the break back in a flurry of double-faults. Fortunately he had a second break in hand, and so looked more wryly amused than stricken, and remained sufficiently loose that he broke Nadal again in the next game, sealing the deal with an off-forehand screamer. Tsonga’s forehand is of course a fearsome shot, but it was his deft and skillful volleys that today proved decisive, along with his first serve. As for Nadal, his forehand ranks among the greatest in the sport, and today it was frankly horrible, a discomfiting illustration of the extent to which the Spaniard feeds off confidence, and of how diminished he is without it. He has the Davis Cup final in eight days, and much to think on.

Tsonga, the surprise we saw coming, will face David Ferrer in the semifinal, an outcome surely no one anticipated. Skipping and twirling across the court afterwards, the Frenchman must fancy his prospects. Ferrer will arguably feel the same, notwithstanding that he too has a Davis Cup final looming. He will play the final round robin match tomorrow against Tomas Berdych, which will decide the last semifinalist (either Berdych or Djokovic). While Ferrer probably doesn’t care who goes through, he will care very much about not wrecking himself the day before the semifinals –  especially with Tsonga having an extra day’s rest – and the week before the Davis Cup. If Berdych takes the first set tomorrow, there is every chance that Ferrer will concede gracefully. A straight sets victory would guarantee Berdych advances, and that Djokovic’s greatest season ever ends in disappointment. Meanwhile, Tipsarevic will play Djokovic earlier in the day, and has it within his power to ease his close friend and compatriot’s passage further by not winning a set. As ever at the end of the round robin stage, there are plenty of moving parts, guaranteeing that each man’s immense pride and urge to win will come up hard against his obligations to friends, countrymen and his own body.

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November 24, 2011

I Could Be Wrong

World Tour Finals, Day Four

(5) Ferrer d. (1) Djokovic, 6/3 6/1

(6) Berdych d. (9) Tipsarevic, 2/6 6/3 7/6

Previewing the World Tour Finals last week, I declared with stentorian finality that David Ferrer would surely not figure heavily, given his dismally winless O2 adventure last year, and that his qualification this year resulted largely from only three strong performances across the season, spaced a long way part. Covering myself glibly, I concluded with the proviso that ‘I could be wrong’, but even as I wrote it I didn’t believe it. Yet somehow, that line has turned out to be the most accurate thing I had to say on the matter, although I draw some comfort from the fact that I wrote Mardy Fish off just as thoroughly – correctly as it turned out – and that no one else gave Ferrer much of a shot, either

Honestly, who could have? Sure, he’s a nice guy, a fine technician, and so tenacious that he boasts his own page in the Illustrated Dictionary of Canine Metaphors. But, drawn in a group with Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych, indoors, he appeared terribly over-matched. The only upset I saw coming would surely come from Berdych. But then the upset I didn’t see coming arrived, and, assisted ably by Murray’s dislocated groin, Ferrer saw off the world No.3 in two very bent sets. Now he’s beaten Djokovic as well, with no help from the latter’s groin, and the sets could hardly have  been straighter. This was Ferrer at his dogged best, although it is important to resist the lazy assumption that that dogged is all he is. He is not a simple baseline grinder.

One thing that was clear against Murray, and is generally a feature of Ferrer’s most dashing wins, was how eager he is to move up into the court, and, prudence permitting, thenceforth venture all the way to the net. He might not reach it, but he’s generally on his way as he deals with the short ball. His volleys are compact, though like nearly all modern players he heavily favours the angled drop-volley. This used to be a Spanish thing, and therefore a clay court thing, but is now just a thing, since few know how to punch through the shot. Still, it’s effective, since his approaches are exclusively deep. Ferrer only sallied forth five times today, but he found success on every occasion. He was rarely bullied away from the baseline, refused to retreat, and remained determined to push the world No.1 around whenever he could. Thus committed, it turned out he could push Djokovic around a great deal, and Djokovic, strangely, appeared willing to be pushed. The Serbian struck 33 unforced errors, and plenty of those were made on the run, at least in the early going.

Later on, the errors gave up pretending to require a reason at all, and the majority of those found the net. It would be unfair to take the victory away from Ferrer, but it would be misleading to pretend this was Djokovic at his best. It’s hard to say what was wrong with him. He looked unusually dispirited, but only if one takes the short view. He used to look like this all the time when things weren’t going his way. Thinking on it, he’s looked this way a lot since the US Open, and the part of the season before Flushing Meadows is coming to seem vaguely unreal (although the fourteen billion points buttressing Djokovic’s ranking lends it some substance. Oh that’s right, we recall – this man won everything).

Whether he has a shot left at winning the Tour Finals will depend on how Friday’s matches play out. Berdych blew a heartbreaker to Djokovic on Monday, and today won another against Janko Tipsarevic. In both cases match points begged, but ultimately went hungry. Ferrer has already progressed, meaning that Djokovic and Berdych will be fighting for that last semifinal berth. Berdych is currently slightly ahead, and will move through if he beats Ferrer in straight sets in the next match. If he doesn’t, and Djokovic overcomes Tipsarevic – as he should – the world No.1 will scrape through, and discover Roger Federer waiting. Tipsarevic twice fell heavily in the final point of today’s loss, and so he’ll be feeling a trifle ginger anyway. Is it beyond reason to think he might feel obliged to help Djokovic through by producing a less than a stellar effort? Thankfully, the two Serbs will play each other first on Friday, and so cannot tailor their efforts based on the outcome of the other match.

Not that I’m cynical.

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November 23, 2011

Doings, Transpiring

World Tour Finals, Day Three

(4) Federer d. (2) Nadal, 6/3 6/0

Andy Murray is out, Roger Federer is up, and Rafael Nadal is down. Mardy Fish is probably out, too – his results so far living down to his own pre-tournament assessment – while Janko Tipsarevic is in, meaning he’ll have something to do at the end of those daily speedboat jaunts he’s been relishing so much. Doings have been a-transpirin’ at the O2, and the week is still young.

Statistics may not always reveal the whole story, but they at least outline the right one in lop-sided matches, though the story is already familiar to anyone who has actually watched the match. Still, being told something you already know can have its charms, if it’s something you want to hear. Tonight’s 26th encounter between Federer and Nadal was among the most emphatic shellackings in their rivalry. This was already clear from watching it, and the numbers do not pretend otherwise: Federer hit 28 winners, Nadal won 27 points. Only nine of those points came in the second set, and almost none of them in a row. There were entire games decided by nothing but winners, mostly but not exclusively from the Swiss forehand. All told, it felt uncannily like last year’s final, but more so. Federer’s attack wide to the deuce court was similarly comical in its relentlessness, and his cross court backhand not only stood up to Nadal’s forehand, but actually dictated to it.

I was put in mind of the Australian Open semifinal of 2007, when Federer’s winner count merely equalled Andy Roddick’s point-total, a match that is still whispered of with reverence by aficionados of consummate thrashings. Indeed, 2007 was much in the air tonight, and not merely because it has been about four years since Federer sustained this kind of form against a top opponent. Hamburg 2007 marks the last time Federer bagelled Nadal, which astute readers may recall was the match that ended Nadal’s record clay-streak of 81 matches. Nadal was gracious after that one – “If anyone is going to beat me, he is the man, no?” – and he was again tonight, refusing to blame anything other than his opponent: “It’s funny, but I didn’t play really bad. He didn’t have one mistake during all the match or two mistakes during all the match. He was playing too aggressive . . . [W]hen Roger plays like this he is better than me, and that’s it.”

We have to travel back to the Masters Cup of 2007 to find a comparable performance against Nadal, when Federer dismissed his greatest rival 6/4 6/1 in even less time than the dawdling hour he took tonight. Of course, we needn’t go back so far to find Nadal reversing the result. Miami earlier this year was a pretty thorough dismantling – less close than its 6/3 6/2 scoreline – although the standout in this area remains the incomparable 2008 French Open final.

Anyway, the upshot is that Federer has become the first player to qualify for the semifinals, although he will still have to play Fish on Thursday, where he will doubtless set out to confirm the American’s initial fear of not belonging in so august a company as this. Nadal will have to overcome an in-form Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in order to progress.

(5) Ferrer d. (3) Murray, 6/4 7/5

Following yesterday’s loss to David Ferrer – an exercise in who could sustain ineptitude the longest – Murray has today pulled out of the Tour Finals with a groin strain, which is undoubtedly the right move. Ferrer was the only gimme in Group A, and Murray boasts a losing record against his next two opponents, Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych. In his press conference, he remarked that he “was trying to find reasons why I should play and no real positives were coming out. I was really unhappy on court.” It’s his call, of course, but I will point out that ‘really unhappy’ pretty much sums up how he looked even while winning Shanghai some weeks back, so it’s hard to take that as a measure of anything. I’ve never known anyone to bring such nuanced variation to ‘glum’.

Still, it’s a colossal bummer for the Scot, who could well lose his No.3 ranking, and for the event, which like all tournaments prefers it when local talent is on show, even if the local chose to be born in another country, and continues to live there. Fans with tickets to tomorrow’s day session – in which Murray was to play Berdych – will surely feel the most bummed of all. Instead they will watch Berdych play Janko Tipsarevic. Those two last met in the third round of Bercy a few weeks back. Tickets to the Palais Omnisports de Paris-Bercy were considerably cheaper than to the O2, and the hall was half-empty for that one. For all their manifold differences, Parisians and Londoners can probably feel united in their indifference towards two players they’ve barely heard of. Perhaps this solidarity will provide some comfort to tomorrow’s ticket holders. Perhaps not.

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November 21, 2011

Indecipherable Patterns

World Tour Finals, Day One

(4) Federer d. (7) Tsonga, 6/2 2/6 6/4

(2) Nadal d. (8) Fish, 6/2 3/6 7/6

The first match of the irregular tennis season – the dusky coda of the World Tour and Davis Cup finals – yielded the same result as the final match of the regular one, with Roger Federer overcoming Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It’s a coincidence that would surely bring more pleasure if it actually meant anything. Einmal ist keinmal, so the saying goes, but sometimes zweimal doesn’t mean much either. It is of course the writer’s task to tease out meaning from the disorderly flow of events, but it is the lot of the bad writer to uncover meaning where there is none. Federer himself is constantly invited to compare and contrast his losses, and he constantly declines to, to the disappointment of an attendant press gallery, full of writers who will not be convinced there is no pattern to be found.

Of today’s match, we might say that, as with the Paris final from last week, Tsonga came out flat and uncertain. We might usefully wonder why he hadn’t taken measures to ensure it wouldn’t happen again – such as playing differently, for example. But then we have to recall that this isn’t his first run-in with Federer in 2011. They have actually met six times this year, and in all but one of those encounters the Frenchman has commenced poorly, dropped the opening set (or two), before recovering with the utmost vigour. Once may not mean anything, or even twice, but five or six times is hard to ignore. Fünfmal probably means something. It mostly means he’s playing Federer, who is a fast starter, and a pretty handy tennis player. That last factor doubtless figures in the other predominant trend in many of this pair’s encounters, which is for Tsonga to collapse when the going gets tight, late in the match. So it proved again today, where a fluffed volley and a double fault proved disastrous.

The patterns were harder to decipher in Rafael Nadal’s eventual win over Mardy Fish, since so many of the many errors were truly unforced. They were randomly arrived at, but their outcome proved drearily decisive. Fish hit three winners to 16 unforced errors in the first set, and lost it. Everything about the second set was reversed. 16 Winners, four errors, set Fish. Nadal was just kind-of there. There was much talk centring on the American needing to believe he could match it with the world No.2, but on a more practical level, he probably just needed to play like he did the last time these two met, when he won. Breaks were doled out freely in the final set, but evenly. A tiebreaker loomed, and then arrived, and Fish neither believed nor executed. Nadal, still there, took the win and professed himself lucky afterwards, although he stopped short of comparing himself to an inspired junior.

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November 18, 2011

Less Dramatic Than It Sounds

Notwithstanding that they are collectively termed a ‘series’, the nine Masters 1000 events peppering the ATP calendar share little beyond the volume of ranking points they offer, and the fact that attendance at them is mandatory. These factors are not insignificant, and for yet another year have helped see them dominated by the top four – especially Novak Djokovic – but beyond that they really are a pretty heterogeneous collection, serving several quite disparate purposes.

Of the nine events, eight fall evenly into two distinct categories. Four – Madrid, Rome, Canada and Cincinnati – serve as lead-ups to majors, whilst another four – Indian Wells, Miami, Shanghai and Paris – function as culminations of short mini-tours themselves, with their success depending largely on the allure of location and surface respectively. They do not offer equal prize- money or prestige, and nor do they boast similar pedigree.

Astute readers will have noted that nine minus eight leaves one, and that there is a Masters event left over. The event in question is Monte Carlo, which serves no discernible purpose beyond guaranteeing Rafael Nadal’s Masters tally is augmented by at least one each year. Occurring over a month before the French Open, its value as a warm-up is questionable. Now, there’s nothing wrong with the event itself, and the location is spectacular, among the most striking in the sport. However, if space was to be created for a grass court Masters – one can hope – then the entire clay season could usefully be shifted forward a week, with Monte Carlo demoted to 500 status and run alongside Barcelona. On the other hand, tradition counts for a lot in this part of the world – the event is a venerable one – and money talks everywhere, so it is unlikely that any shift is forthcoming. But I digress.

In any case, here is the round up of the Masters 1000 ‘Series’ for 2011.

Indian Wells
Winner: Novak Djokovic
Confirmation of Andy Murray’s annual post-Australian Open slump came when he fell in straight sets to Donald Young. Ryan Harrison announced his arrival in an excellent encounter with Milos Raonic. Ivo Karlovic came within a whisker of upsetting Nadal in a third set tiebreaker. Federer lost a fraught semifinal to Djokovic and with it the No.2 ranking. Djokovic defeated Nadal for the first time in a final, outlasting the Spaniard physically. The doubles event took the show, with most of the top ten singles players participating, thereby demonstrating that the top doubles players are not necessarily the best doubles players.

Miami
Winner: Novak Djokovic
Apparently not rejuvenated by the shift from desert to swamp, Murray’s sojourn in the wilderness continued by losing to Alex Bogomolov Jnr. Plenty of other seeds tumbled early. Roddick, defending champion, fell sourly to Pablo Cuevas. Mardy Fish became the highest ranked American for the first time, and set about disavowing his status. Kevin Anderson won plenty of fans, gallant against an untouchable Djokovic. Federer and Rochus were forced onto court well after midnight, and left under an hour later. Nadal smashed Federer in the semifinal, and again fell to Djokovic in the final, and was again outlasted. There seemed to be a pattern here.

Monte Carlo
Winner: Rafael Nadal
Djokovic, still unbeaten for the year, pulled out prior to commencement, but vowed to help out with the player’s party, which was generous. Ferrer ambled through the hole he left in the draw. Nadal took the event for a record 380th time, his first title since Tokyo the year before. Murray, wounded, signalled a return from the wild, reaching the semifinals and managing one majestic set against Nadal. Federer tried out some things against Melzer in a windy quarterfinal, but none of them worked, so he lost, his first loss before the semifinals in nine months. Raonic proved he could play on clay, and Verdasco proved he couldn’t.

Madrid
Winner: Novak Djokovic
The talk of the week was altitude, and just how much of it the Spanish capital has. There’s surely an export industry there, if only to rapidly submerging Pacific islands. Djokovic defeated Nadal in the final – again – recording his first win over the world No.1 on clay. Thomaz Bellucci was the surprise semifinalist – sashaying through Murray’s quarter – where he took a set from Djokovic, which is one more than Nadal managed. The pattern we sensed in Miami turned out to be that Djokovic won every time he played.

Rome
Winner: Novak Djokovic
A return to sea level, and order was restored, except that Nadal almost lost early to Paolo Lorenzi. Soderling and Almagro fought out a classic, as did Gasquet and Federer. Both were eclipsed by the barnstorming semifinal between Murray and Djokovic, which Djokovic only salvaged in a third set tiebreak, saving match point. Utterly spent, there was little chance he’d have anything left for the final against Nadal. Except he did, and won in straight sets. The issue, clearly, was that Nadal now had no idea how to play Djokovic, who had closed to within spitting distance of the No.1 ranking. This was easily the best of the Masters events this season.

Montreal
Winner: Novak Djokovic
New No.1 Djokovic’s fifth Masters title for the season set a new record. Ivan Dodig upset Nadal early, and Anderson did the same for Murray, the defending champion. Tsonga proved his Wimbledon win over Federer wasn’t a fluke by doing it again. The story of the week was Janko Tipsarevic, a late bloomer ready to make his mark, storming to the semifinals. Mardy Fish’s strong US Summer Series continued, and he grabbed a set from Djokovic in the final.

Cincinnati
Winner: Andy Murray
Nadal and Verdasco fought out the poorest match of the year early, an encounter of such sustained subterranean quality that it almost defied belief, like the pair’s Australian Open 2009 semifinal played out in Bizarro World. Fish finished Nadal off shortly after. Overcoming early motivational issues against Monfils, Djokovic eased through to the final, as did Murray. The Scot began stronger, and took the first set. Then the weather arrived, the players left the court, and Djokovic didn’t come back. The title was Murray’s, but with the US Open a week away, the story was the Serbian’s shoulder.

Shanghai
Winner: Andy Murray
Murray capped a clean sweep through Asia with a near-effortless defence of his Shanghai title, snarling and cussing his way through any number of situations in which he was in no real danger of losing. He moved to No.3 in the rankings. Semifinal runs saw Feliciano Lopez close on the top 20 and Kei Nishikori finally realise Project 45.

Paris Indoors
Winner: Roger Federer
Federer’s first Bercy title was naturally the histoire de la semaine, with supplementary narrative provided by several precautionary retirements (Djokovic and Fish), and the improbable run of John Isner, who blew three match points in the semifinal. As ever, the legion of Frenchman fell early, barring one, who pushed through to the final. The One this time round was Tsonga. Paris also determined the final three qualifiers for the World Tour Finals – Tsonga is among them – all at the precise moment Berdych saw off a gagging Tipsarevic in the third round. It was less dramatic than it sounds.

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November 17, 2011

Luck of the Draw: World Tour Finals 2011

Group A: Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych

Group B: Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish

The draw for the World Tour Finals has been released from whatever was restraining it, and the astounding news is that your favourite player is in a far more perilous Group than that other player who you don’t much care for. Unless your favourite player is Roger Federer, that is, in which case Rafael Nadal’s presence in his Group is a sure sign of favouritism, although I cannot say towards whom. Tsonga is caught in the middle. If you’re a fan of Mardy Fish, or you’re an American suddenly helpless in the face of patriotic impulses, you probably feel it’s unfair that the other seven guys are all better tennis players. Something ought to be done about that, and the fact that it hasn’t been speaks volumes of the United States’ declining power. David Ferrer’s fans are presumably just happy he’s there, while the Berdych faithful remain convinced the great Oz will one day grant him a heart.

Glancing shyly over each group, it is frankly hard to see where the upsets are going to come from, although that is the general rule with upsets. Much will depend on Nadal’s indoor form following a long outdoor lay-off, and on Djokovic’s body, and on how well Murray dignifies that strange feeling of Britishness now overwhelming the locals, by finally winning an event they’ve actually heard of. Assuming they’re all fit, the top four will likely justify their foregone qualification by filling out the semifinal berths, just like last year.

There is of course the faint hope that it will play out like the year before, when the upsets no one saw coming arrived in a flurry, and Nikolay Davydenko proved ultimately unplayable. If that’s to happen, it will most likely be Tsonga or Berdych going on a tear. Ferrer and Fish, much as I cannot cavil at their ranking, will probably not figure heavily. Ferrer largely owes his spot to an Australian Open semifinal back in January and a couple of Masters events in which he faced no one fearsome before the final. Fish has retired from his previous two tournaments. At his age, and given his career, he knows he may never get another shot at it. He’ll surely play like he has nothing to lose. Unfortunately, the guys who’re here every year play like that nearly all the time, and they’re better at it.

Or I could be wrong.

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November 14, 2011

Extending His Longevity

Paris Masters 1000, Final

(3) Federer d. (6) Tsonga, 6/1 7/6

Federer’s eventual victory at the Paris Indoors was no more foregone than it was ordained, but as the first set unfolded today in the Palais Omnisports de Paris-Bercy, it might have seemed that way. After a decade of near misses, Federer was in the final, and on fire. Surely the moment was at hand. However, a sense of entitlement is a fraught thing for a fan to feel, and perilous for a player, although there was never any danger Federer would take Jo-Wilfried Tsonga lightly, given their recent history. That Wimbledon quarterfinal, in which Federer refunded a two set lead, surely remains jagged and open, and might always. Hubris is only attractive when punished, but who can begrudge hope?

Initial difficulties had not proved indicative. Obliged to fend off break points in the first game, Federer broke Tsonga in the second, and about 20 minutes later held the set. Tsonga was no doubt wearied from his toils astride Isner the day before, but to be frank he didn’t look too haggard. He just wasn’t playing very well, his serve ill-directed, while Federer was dialled in from the get go.

Over the years, more has gone wrong for the Swiss at this tournament than at any other, and often it has gone wrong from a set up. Tsonga lifted, and the games grew tight. Hope wavered, faced with the prospect of another inspired opponent storming back. Federer fended off a break point in the seventh game, as did Tsonga in the eighth. Then it was the third seed’s turn to lift. The Frenchman sputtered and lurched to the tiebreak, while Federer flowed, his liquid whip forehand snapping crisp winners through a pair of love holds. Momentum can shift in a tiebreak, or it can’t. Today it didn’t, and the assertiveness with which Tsonga had commenced the second set continued to drain away. The errors were soft and Federer’s first serve grew scathing. A couple of match points arrived and dutifully departed – a deft drop shot and a crashing serve. Recall that Federer now requires a buffer of three in any big match. He served, they rallied, and a last Tsonga forehand sailed long. Federer pivoted to trace its arc, the last stroke of the regular 2011 season. As the ball found the court, he lifted his face to the crowd and his arms to the roof.

Afterward he seemed tangibly thrilled to heft the frozen liquorice trophy, its cluttered modernity – simultaneously echoing the inelegant wrought iron of the Paris Metro and the lethally tangled wreckage of the Somme, or something – wholly in keeping with the European indoor events, which are determined to outdo each other in this regard. He confessed in his modestly fluent French, translated with dogged approximation by Robbie Koenig, just how much this title meant to him, and for a wonder it sounded heartfelt. He added that his sick daughter had crawled into bed at 4am that morning, and that this had not been the ideal preparation. Koenig rendered this as something to do with having kids, which rather missed the point.

The point was that winning these things isn’t getting any easier, and for reasons that aren’t always predictable, though they add up just the same. The combination of fatherhood and sustained excellence immediately ushered Agassi to mind, as did the fact that Federer joins the Las Vegan as the only men to claim both Roland Garros and Bercy, and the only men to have won seven of the nine different Masters events (Nadal and Djokovic are both on six). As Chris Masters earlier exclaimed with such vigour, and a breezy contempt for the language: ‘His longevity just keeps going on and on and on!’ Next week in London he will seek to extend his longevity still farther, to become the only man ever to win the year end championships six times. He will enter as defending champion, on a twelve match winning streak, as the finest indoor player in the world. He has held that status for years, of course, but finally he has the sport’s most famous indoor title to prove it.

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November 13, 2011

Finally, In Paris, Indoors

Paris Masters 1000, Semifinals

(3) Federer d. (5) Berdych, 6/4 6/3

(6) Tsonga d. Isner, 3/6 7/6 7/6

The question inevitably comes up at this point in the season as to why the Paris Indoors remains such a strange blot on Roger Federer’s unmatched record. Unlike, say, Sampras at Roland Garros, Federer is an outstanding indoor player, and he generally performs well in France, where he is as perennially popular as everywhere else. And yet until last year, he had never even passed the quarterfinals. Until today he had never progressed to the final. The complicated and highly technical answer is that it is just one of those things: so it goes. As tempting as a structural assessment is – what is the real issue here? – there is really little point, as antithetical as that is to the narrativising conceit of sports commentary. Occasionally he played badly, or David Nalbandian played beautifully. Early on, he rarely played at all, which really blew out the odds on him winning. In 2008 he withdrew from his quarterfinal with James Blake, which remains the only time he has ever withdrawn before a match (he has never retired during one). None of these reasons have much in common, barring the fact that they occurred late in the season, in Paris, indoors. Now, late in the sport’s most decorated career, he has a tremendous shot at it.

But why now? Some may point at Murray’s loss, Djokovic’s withdrawal and Nadal’s absence. But this trio had no hand in Federer’s previous failures at this venue. Others might say that nearing the end of a relatively dismal season, he was due for a big result. It’s a neat idea, but ‘due’ is the clue that it’s a dud. No one is due anything in tennis, especially those who’ve won nearly everything. What Federer has achieved, he has earned, and he earned his spot in the Bercy final with a coruscating display of honed ball striking over a helpless Tomas Berdych. He closed the match by breaking to love. Perfect moments, so they say, have a clean design.

Federer will play Tsonga in the final, and his favouritism is overwhelming. True, having spent much of the week griping about the speed of the court and fluffiness of the balls, Tsonga scraped through his semifinal in coarse style, fending off three match points against that renowned slow court specialist John Isner. The Frenchman didn’t play well, and now he’s tired. Federer played well, and looks fresh. Of course, he was fresh at Wimbledon, and look how that turned out. The same went for Montreal. And Tsonga already owns a Paris Masters shield.

Last year, of course, Federer fell to Gael Monfils in three tight sets after holding five match points, the apotheosis of a habit he was rather taken with at the time. He has lately combined it with blowing a two set lead, a potent cocktail of heartbreak for his fans. The good news is that a two set lead will probably get it done tomorrow. It generally proves decisive in the best-of-three set format. The ATP markets the nine Masters 1000 events as the premiere tournaments on its calendar, and used to back that claim up with five set finals. Some of these finals proved to be classics, spectacles worthy of a Major. We were approaching a point at which even the general public might start tuning in to watch. Think of Rome 2006, one of the matches of the decade. There was no telling where it would end up, except that it ended up with Tommy Robredo winning Hamburg the following week. That outcome was summarily deemed too appalling to risk repeating, a crime against man and god, and so five set finals were no more. Christmas was also cancelled, I recall. Regardless, the Masters 1000 events have mostly retained their cachet, and the fact that only top players win them suggests that the airy dream of their elevated status is justified by how they actually play out. Making attendance mandatory helps.

Federer has become the first man to reach the final at all of them. If he manages to win that final he will gain a lot of things, not least of which will be satisfaction at a masterful week, and valuable momentum as he begins his title defence in London. He will also guarantee that next year, for the first time in years, he won’t have to endure the question of why he’s never won Bercy. He once remarked that this was the best part of finally winning the French Open in 2009, the fact that he’d never have to be asked about it again.

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November 11, 2011

The End Is Nigh

Paris Masters 1000, Third Round

(5) Berdych d. (11) Tipsarevic, 7/5 6/4

Monaco d. (7) Fish, 1/6 7/6 1/2 ret.

(1) Djokovic d. (15) Troicki, 4/6 6/3 6/1

The consequences of Tomas Berdych’s perpetually evolving victory over Janko Tipsarevic in Paris today will resonate both in the short term and the long. Most immediately, it means that the final line up for the World Tour Finals has been decided (perhaps), meaning the ATP website will have to find something else to go on about for the time being. This outcome is being widely reported, as expected.*

Less discussed, but unarguably more profound, has been the ineradicable demonstration that robotics has progressed to the point whereby even a merely steady AI will overcome a fallible human. The ending has begun. It may seem a large jump from Berdych to Skynet, but tyranny never begins all at once. Later generations, huddled starving in their bunkers, will view Berdych’s first win over Tipsarevic in five meetings as a tipping point, the point when the machines gained something like sentience, and watched on in wonder as the humans discarded theirs. Twice.

Tipsarevic blew leads in both sets, and both times the collapse was total. It is one thing to be broken back while serving for a set, even indoors, but it quite another be broken again and again. Berdych can admittedly be a terrifying prospect when he is imposing his game, with ‘game’ in this sense meaning hitting the ball very hard from the baseline. Beijing was a good example. Today was nothing like that. He was merely steady, having realised – sentience! – that even at 1/5 down, nothing more was required. Tipsarevic makes serving for a set look like the most precarious position imaginable. Perhaps I am being harsh, but the Serb will finish 2011 in the top ten, and this will be his final match of his break-out season (perhaps).

The reason I qualify the point is that Tipsarevic has narrowly missed out on a Tour Finals berth, but will go in as first alternate should one of the qualifiers withdraw for any reason. As it happens, Mardy Fish managed to injure himself whilst seeing off Juan Monaco, and was compelled to retire. As a rule, I have little patience for precautionary retirements, but clearly the decision not to proceed was justified. This will be his first appearance at the Tour Finals, and even those who qualify every year regard it as an honour. He was clearly injured, and sacrificing his spot merely to grind out a painful win in Bercy – and then face Federer – understandably held little allure.

Novak Djokovic doubtless enjoyed a broadly similar apathy coming into his match against Viktor Troicki. He certainly looked disinclined to win, and sprayed several hundred errors in dropping the first set. There was more of the same to begin the second, except that Troicki reverted to type, and could not gain the decisive break no matter how many times Djokovic double faulted. The world No.1 somehow held at 2/2, and then realised that even down a set it would be quicker and easier just to win the thing and get off court. He allowed Troicki just two more games, which is two more than he deserved.

*The final three qualifiers are Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Mardy Fish.

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